Forecasting Patient Flows into Emergency Services

Mohamed Afilal (1) , Lionel Amodeo (1) , Farouk Yalaoui (1) , Frédéric Dugardin (1)

1 LOSI - Laboratoire d'Optimisation des Systèmes Industriels

Emergency services (ES) represent the chief gateway for patients into the hospital and particular attention has been paid to these services in the attempts to offer in-patients a higher quality of service. The main objective of this chapter is to build a model to predict the daily flow of patients both in the long term as well as in the short term. The goal of this predictive model is to predict the daily flow of patients for every category in the CCMU (the clinical classification of patients in ES) and the GEMSA (the multi-center study group of reception services) (Panorama Urgences 2013). In the step where the chapter analyzes data (a pre-requisite for constructing the model), it proposes a new practical classification of patients in the ES, which groups together patients who exhibit similar behavior in the department.

Domains: Operations Research [cs.RO]

Mohamed Afilal, Lionel Amodeo, Farouk Yalaoui, Frédéric Dugardin. Forecasting Patient Flows into Emergency Services. Hospital Logistics and e‐Management: Digital Transition and Revolution, Wiley, pp.85-143, 2019, 9781786305008. ⟨10.1002/9781119670537.ch5⟩. ⟨hal-03261022⟩