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Impact of information on the quality of a prognosis indicator

Ariane Lorton 1 Mitra Fouladirad 2 Antoine Grall 2
1 STMR - Sciences et Technologies pour la Maitrise des Risques
UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR6279
Abstract : This paper proposes a way to determine the quality and the amount of available information on a prognosis. For this purpose, a generic probabilistic model of the evolution of dynamic systems, called Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) is proposed and described. Prognosis consists in the computation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system, which is defined thereafter for repairable systems. The way information plays a role into RUL is described as well. Then a criterion is proposed to calculate the impact of information on the use of RUL, especially for systems design. The methodology is illustrated with a BLEED system, simplified to allow analytical results. It details the calculation process and highlights where results are most influenced by the information. For future research, this methodology could be applied on more complex models and/or with other criterion, especially to see the interaction with simulation.
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https://hal-utt.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02319165
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Submitted on : Thursday, October 17, 2019 - 4:57:09 PM
Last modification on : Friday, August 27, 2021 - 3:14:06 PM

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Ariane Lorton, Mitra Fouladirad, Antoine Grall. Impact of information on the quality of a prognosis indicator. Integrity (RAMS), Jan 2011, Lake Buena Vista, United States. pp.1-6, ⟨10.1109/RAMS.2011.5754510⟩. ⟨hal-02319165⟩

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